Abstract: Firms’ hurdle rates exceed their financial cost of capital. This gap varies across firms and has widened in the aggregate. In our Schumpeterian model, two frictions drive this gap: firm decision-makers require an innovator’s risk premium for undiversifiable innovation risk, and innovation profits are imperfectly pledgeable. Higher undiversifiable risk lowers the financial cost of capital while hurdle rates remain sticky or even rise. Widening gaps weaken creative destruction; profits and superstar valuations rise despite firms forgoing positive-NPV projects. The calibrated model matches cross-sectional patterns in gaps, R&D, market power and firm dynamics, and explains weak productivity growth and declining dynamism.
