Ago 042018

The European Central Bank (ECB) released the results of the 2018:Q3 predictions on macroeconomic conditions in the Euro Zone. The main findings are summarized in three points:

  • HICP inflation expectations revised upwards for 2018 and 2019, while unchanged for 2020; longer-term expectations remained stable at 1.9%
  • Real GDP growth expectations revised downwards for 2018 and 2019, but unchanged for 2020
  • Unemployment rate expectations little changed

Respondents to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2018 reported point forecasts for annual HICP inflation averaging 1.7% for each of 2018, 2019 and 2020. Compared with the previous survey round, this represents upward revisions of 0.2 percentage point for 2018 and 0.1 percentage point for 2019, but no change to the expectation for 2020. Average longer-term inflation expectations (which, like all other longer-term expectations in this SPF, referred to 2023) remained stable at 1.9%.

SPF respondents’ expectations for real growth in euro area GDP averaged 2.2%, 1.9% and 1.6% for 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. This represents downward revisions of 0.2 percentage point for 2018 and 0.1 percentage point for 2019, but no change for 2020. Average longer-term expectations for real GDP growth remained unchanged at 1.6%.

Unemployment rate expectations were little changed, standing at 8.3%, 7.9% and 7.6% for 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively, and 7.5% for the longer term.


Source: European Central Bank


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