The projections provide the key to understanding our policy decision. It’s almost a cliché now but the level of uncertainty is huge. So much so, we published alternative scenarios. The key differences in the scenarios relate to trade policy. In the baseline, we assume no retaliation and a 10% tariff. In the adverse scenario, we assume higher tariffs and retaliation…
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/inter/date/2025/html/ecb.in250616~e15b7a2a3f.en.html
