The last ECB Governing Council meeting left the door open for a pause in interest rate cuts, or even stopping them all together. Would you be OK with rates remaining at their current level of 2.5%?

At the time of our March meeting, markets were pricing in a reduction in interest rates over the coming months, including going below 2%, with rates stabilising around that level. To produce our macroeconomic projections we take as given the rate path being priced in by markets and, despite rates being on a downward trajectory, the projections showed inflation converging towards our target at the beginning of 2026, with slightly weaker growth.

Since then, not only has this narrative been confirmed, but key issues have arisen that have strengthened the arguments in favour of continuing to lower rates. First, energy prices have fallen significantly. The upward revision to projected inflation for this year was based on increased energy costs, but the pressure has eased as this trend reverses. Second, the euro has appreciated and real rates have increased, which contributes to lower inflation.

And if the United States were to impose tariffs on European exports, that would have a negative impact on demand, which would further strengthen the downward trend in inflation. In the same vein, trade tensions between China and the United States could lead to China redirecting its products to the European market, increasing the downward pressure on prices.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu//press/inter/date/2025/html/ecb.in250324~ff1c69da91.en.html