Capital markets

Federico D’Amario, Sebastian De-Ramon and William B. Francis “The economic effects of changes to bank capital regulation: evidence from the United Kingdom”
Bank of England, Working Paper n°1,172

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Apr 29 2026
Abstract: Strong bank capitalisation provides long‑run financial‑stability benefits. However, transitioning to higher capital levels may involve short‑run costs. We analyse the effects of prudential capital changes on lending behaviour, macroeconomic outcomes, and banking competition using UK data within a structural VAR framework with sign and ...more »

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Giovanni Covi, Maren Froemel, Dennis Reinhardt and Nora Wegner “Climate policy and banks’ portfolio allocation”
Bank of England, Working Paper n° 1,149

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Apr 29 2026
Abstract: How do banks respond to transition risk and which mechanisms drive this response? We shed new light on this question using data on granular international large exposures of UK banks. Climate policy is the main source of transition risk we use. We find that ...more »

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Iñaki Aldasoro, Paula Beltrán and Federico Grinberg “Stablecoin flows and spillovers to FX markets”
Bank for International Settlements, BIS Working Papers n° 1340

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Apr 29 2026
Abstract: Using data on four USD-pegged stablecoins and 27 fiat currencies, this paper documents spillovers from stablecoin-based foreign exchange (FX) to traditional FX markets. We document a gap between the cost of acquiring dollars via stablecoins and via the spot FX market (parity deviations). To ...more »

Bo Li, Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, Marcello Miccoli, Brandon Joel Tan and Longmei Zhang “Making Stablecoins Stable”
International Monetary Fund, Working paper n° 26/74

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Apr 29 2026
Abstract: Payment stablecoins are privately issued digital money with the potential to enhance payment efficiency, foster innovation, and improve financial inclusion. At the same time, they are vulnerable to runs and associated welfare losses. One way to lower run risk is to require stablecoin issuers ...more »

Paul Konietschke, Julian Metzler and Aurea Ponte Marques “A quantile probability model for sectoral corporate defaults in Europe”
European Central Bank, Working Paper Series n° 3207

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Apr 29 2026
Abstract: Conventional credit risk models understate tail risk by centering on mean default probabilities and neglecting distributional and sectoral heterogeneity. We propose a Quantile Probability of Default (QPD) framework based on unconditional quantile regressions estimated on flow default rates from five million non-financial firms across ...more »

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Fabien Gonguet, Xuehui Han, Choonsung Lim, To-Nhu Dao and Saraf Nawar “Climate Finance and Adaptation Needs In Pacific Island Countries”
International Monetary Fund, Working paper n° 26/83

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Apr 29 2026
Abstract: Pacific Island Countries (PICs) face acute and rising climate adaptation needs due to high exposure to sea‑level rise, natural disasters, and structural vulnerabilities associated with small size and geographic remoteness. This paper develops a unified framework to produce the first region‑wide, internally consistent estimates ...more »

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Temperature Anomalies and Climate Physical Risk in Portfolio Construction

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Apr 27 2026
Michele Azzone, Carlo Bechi, Gabriele Sbaiz 1. Introduction The increasing frequency, severity, and unpredictability of natural disasters and chronic climate threats pose unprecedented challenges to global financial markets. Traditional asset pricing models and portfolio management frameworks often struggle to incorporate the stochastic nature of physical ...more »

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Pricing and Hedging Financial Derivatives in Merger&Acquisition Deals with Price Impact

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Apr 25 2026
Authors: Emilio Barucci, Yuheng Lan, Daniele Marazzina. This paper investigates the optimal execution and pricing of financial contracts commonly used in merger and acquisition (M&A) transactions, focusing on agreements between a broker and a counterparty. In particular, we analyze three classes of contracts: linear instruments ...more »

Marco Gross and Richard Senner “From Par to Pressure: Liquidity, Redemptions, and Fire Sales with a Systemic Stablecoin”
International Monetary Fund, Working paper n° 26/5

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Mar 26 2026
Abstract: Fiat-backed stablecoins are expanding, and their issuers may attain systemic relevance as reserve portfolios grow and as they may become increasingly intertwined with financial markets. This paper analyzes the resulting risks and the design choices that can mitigate them. A detailed financial-economics discussion forms ...more »

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Eugenio M. Cerutti, Martina Hengge and Takaaki Sagawa, “Stablecoin Shocks”
International Monetary Fund, Working paper n° 26/44

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Mar 26 2026
Abstract: We develop novel measures of stablecoin shocks and use them to identify the causal effects of stablecoin adoption on U.S. financial markets. Combining a daily narrative dataset of stablecoin-specific news with changes in the combined market capitalization of USDC and USDT, we measure high-frequency ...more »

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