Abstract: Internal ratings-based models play a central role in bank risk management and regulatory capital determination, yet their validation remains methodologically challenging and operationally resource-intensive. In this paper, we contribute to the quantitative validation of probability of default models through a systematic backtesting exercise using ...more »

Abstract: We propose a framework for constructing fixed-income portfolios of sovereign bonds that integrates financial and environmental considerations. Central to our approach is the introduction of carbon returns, a concept analogous to financial returns, modeled as random variables to capture the inherent uncertainty of future ...more »

Abstract: Drawing on a novel dataset of more than 10,000 speeches from 1914 to 2024, we track the evolution of Federal Reserve communication and identify three stylized facts. (1) Although the overall volume of speeches has declined over the past decade, the composition of Fed ...more »

Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between the optimal level minimum capital requirements aimed at preventing moral hazard by banks and banks’ incentives to invest in process innovation aimed at improving operational efficiency. We extend Hellmann et al (2000)’s dynamic model of banking competition to ...more »

Abstract: We analyse how risk-based capital requirements shape competition and credit allocation in the UK unsecured Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME) lending market using confidential loan-level data. Motivated by empirical patterns, we develop and estimate a structural model with screening, asymmetric information, and imperfect competition, ...more »

Abstract: Emerging economies that are large oil producers have sizable external debt, their sovereign risk rises when oil prices fall, and many of them have defaulted in the past. Interestingly, oil output reduces country risk on impact and in the long-run,but oil reserves increase it in ...more »

Abstract: We establish a causal link between liquidity regulation and a lower cost of bank wholesale funding. For identification, we use pre-determined variation in banks’ liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) in a difference-in-differences setup. Granular instrument-level data allow us to carefully control for any observable and ...more »

Abstract: Geopolitical risk is a major concern for the euro area, yet widely used measures largely reflect a US perspective. We introduce a geopolitical risk indicator tailored to the euro area using local European news sources. Shocks to this index have significant recessionary and inflationary ...more »